Jordan: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Population Overview

Population Overview

As of mid-2024, the total population of concern to UNHCR in Jordan stands at 761,000 individuals. This figure, while relatively stable over the past five years, masks significant underlying dynamics and represents one of the highest refugee-to-citizen ratios in the world, underscoring the immense and enduring generosity of the host country.

The data reveals a demographic landscape overwhelmingly shaped by the protracted crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic. Refugees constitute the vast majority of the population of concern, numbering 647,000. Of these, over 611,000 are from Syria, a figure that dwarfs all other nationalities combined and highlights the long-term impact of the neighbouring conflict. Smaller refugee populations from Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia reflect other, albeit less pronounced, regional instabilities.

Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile indicative of long-term protection needs and future challenges. The population is remarkably young, with a wide base that tapers with age. Children under the age of 18 represent a significant portion of the total, pointing to sustained, critical needs in education, child protection, and psychosocial support. The gender distribution is almost perfectly balanced across all age cohorts, suggesting that most families have been displaced as intact units.

Recent trends indicate a complex and evolving situation. While the total population of concern has gradually risen since 2019, the period between 2023 and 2024 saw a notable decrease in the registered refugee population by over 40,000 people. This change likely reflects a combination of factors, including durable solutions such as resettlement to third countries, voluntary repatriation, and the results of ongoing data verification exercises. Concurrently, the number of asylum-seekers has continued a steady upward trend, reaching 78,000 by mid-2024. This demonstrates that while the Syrian crisis remains the primary driver of displacement in Jordan, new and ongoing insecurities in the region continue to compel people to seek international protection.

Demographics

AI Insight: A treemap of the populations of concern in Jordan, where refugees constitute the overwhelming majority of the total 677,000 individuals as of 2024., This treemap visualizes the composition of the 677,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in Jordan for the year 2024. The visualization uses rectangles of varying sizes to represent the proportion of each of the seven distinct population types.

The data is heavily skewed, with one group overwhelmingly dominating the total. This single category accounts for 643,641 individuals, representing approximately 95% of the total population of concern. Visually, this is represented by the largest rectangle, which occupies the vast majority of the chart area.

The other six population categories are significantly smaller. The statistical summary highlights this disparity, with a median population size of only 17 individuals and 75% of categories having fewer than 16,478 individuals. This extreme contrast underscores that while multiple population types are present in Jordan, one group forms the primary focus of humanitarian operations in terms of scale.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of the age and gender distribution for populations of concern in Jordan, where the population is heavily concentrated in younger age groups and is almost evenly split between males and females., This population pyramid displays the age and gender distribution for 11,377,319 persons of concern (including refugees, asylum-seekers, and others) in Jordan, as of 2024. The data notably features 100% gender disaggregation.

The vertical axis is segmented into five age cohorts: 0-4, 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+ years. The horizontal axis represents the percentage of the population, with males on the left and females on the right.

The pyramid’s shape is expansive, with a wide base that tapers towards the top, indicating a very young population. The largest cohort is the 0-4 age group, accounting for approximately 24.2% of all males and 24.3% of all females. The population size decreases progressively with each older age group.

Statistically, the gender distribution is remarkably balanced. The mean percentage across all age groups is 10.0% for males and 9.96% for females. This near-perfect symmetry suggests a stable population structure without significant gender-specific disparities.

Geography & Movements

Jordan: A Hub of Protracted Displacement and Onward Movement

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan continues to demonstrate remarkable solidarity, hosting one of the largest refugee populations per capita globally. The data reveals that the displacement situation within its borders is defined by the protracted nature of the Syrian crisis. As of 2024, refugees from Syria constitute the overwhelming majority of the forcibly displaced population, numbering over 611,000. While Jordan also provides sanctuary to smaller, stable populations from Iraq, Yemen, and other nations, the sheer scale of the Syrian cohort underscores the immense and sustained pressure on national services and host communities. Analysis of trends since 2019 confirms the stability of this demographic landscape, with no significant shifts in the composition of origin, pointing to the long-term challenge of finding durable solutions for these populations.

Simultaneously, Jordan serves as a point of departure for refugees and other persons of concern seeking safety and solutions elsewhere. While individuals who were in Jordan have reached at least 54 countries, the pathways to protection are highly concentrated. This is most evident in the fact that a single destination country now hosts over 52,000 individuals, a figure that dwarfs the numbers received by other nations. Behind this leading destination, the distribution remains significantly skewed; the median population across the top ten host countries is just over 7,200. This pattern reveals that resettlement and other opportunities for those displaced in Jordan, while geographically widespread, are functionally concentrated within a limited number of humanitarian corridors. Behind these stark numbers lies the story of a nation shouldering a profound, long-term responsibility while also being a critical juncture in the global search for safety and stability.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for refugees and other persons of concern from Jordan, where a few countries host the majority of individuals, with the top destination hosting over 7,200 people., This world map illustrates the global distribution of various populations of concern originating from Jordan as of 2024, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and stateless persons. Countries are color-coded to represent the number of individuals they host.

The data is based on a dataset covering 54 destination countries. The number of individuals per country shows a highly skewed distribution, ranging from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 7,272. This indicates a significant concentration in a small number of host nations. The median number of hosted individuals is 19, while the mean is 376, a difference that highlights the influence of outliers with large populations. The interquartile range shows that 50% of the host countries have between 6 and 93 individuals. The primary insight is that while people from Jordan have found refuge in numerous countries, a single top destination accounts for a disproportionately large share of the total population.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 9 countries of origin for refugees in Jordan in 2024, where refugees from Syria, numbering 611,473, constitute the vast majority., This horizontal bar chart displays the number of refugees in Jordan by their top nine countries of origin for the year 2024. The data shows a highly skewed distribution, dominated by a single country.

The largest group by a significant margin is from Syria, with a registered population of 611,473. The populations from the other eight countries and an ‘Other’ category are substantially smaller. The statistical profile indicates that the median population size for an origin group is 304 people. 75% of the origin groups have fewer than 2,966 people, and the smallest group numbers just 37. This vast difference in scale underscores the magnitude of the Syrian refugee presence in Jordan compared to other refugee populations in the country. Each bar is accompanied by the country’s flag, name, and the specific number of individuals.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the origin of forcibly displaced populations in Jordan from 2019 to 2025, where the Syrian population consistently represents the vast majority, with much smaller, stable populations from Iraq and other countries., This alluvial diagram illustrates the composition of forcibly displaced populations in Jordan by country of origin, showing annual data from 2019 to 2025. The population figures are presented in thousands. The chart tracks three origin groups: Syria, Iraq, and ‘Other’. The width of the flow for each group is proportional to its population size.

Key Observations: - Dominance of Syrian Population: The Syrian population is by far the largest group throughout the entire period, with numbers consistently exceeding 600,000. The dataset’s maximum value of 672,952 pertains to this group, highlighting its significant scale compared to others. - Stable Iraqi Population: The population from Iraq constitutes the second-largest identified group. This cohort remains relatively stable over the years, with values hovering around the dataset’s median of approximately 62,000. - ‘Other’ Origins: A smaller, stable population group is categorized as ‘Other’. Its numbers are the lowest, consistently below 25,000 people, as indicated by the dataset’s lower quartile.

Overall, the visualization demonstrates a highly stable situation regarding the origins of displaced populations in Jordan. There are no significant shifts in the proportional representation of these groups between 2019 and 2025, underscoring the protracted nature of displacement for these communities.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Jordan as of 2024, where the primary destination hosts a significantly larger population of over 52,000 people compared to the others., This bar chart displays the top ten destination countries for forcibly displaced populations originating from Jordan. The data shows a highly skewed distribution, with one country serving as the primary destination, hosting 52,125 individuals. The remaining nine countries host substantially smaller populations, with the lowest in this top-ten list hosting 2,398 people. The median number of displaced people per country is 7,212, which is considerably lower than the average of 13,488. This statistical difference highlights the disproportionate concentration of the displaced population in the leading host country. The interquartile range, from 4,278 to 17,871, indicates the typical population size for the majority of the other destination countries.

Asylum System

The State of National Asylum Systems

National asylum systems continue to face immense pressure as new and protracted crises drive forced displacement. The data reveals a critical trend in Jordan, where the gap between cumulative asylum applications and the number of decisions rendered has widened progressively between 2020 and 2024. This signifies a growing backlog, placing considerable strain on processing capacities and extending periods of uncertainty for those seeking international protection. The fluctuating volume of annual applications, which reached a peak of nearly 2,500 cases in one year, highlights the volatility and unpredictability that systems must manage.

Despite these challenges, the system delivered a significant number of outcomes, with 84,528 decisions recorded in 2024 alone. Behind these stark numbers, the primary outcome was the granting of refugee status, underscoring a commitment to international protection. A substantial number of cases were also closed for administrative reasons, while a smaller portion were rejected.

The data further reveals that the likelihood of a positive outcome varies considerably depending on the country of origin. Refugee recognition rates for the ten most frequently processed nationalities in Jordan ranged from as high as 78 per cent to as low as 8 per cent. This wide disparity reflects the diverse and specific protection risks faced by different populations seeking safety, requiring nuanced and expert adjudication.

This dynamic is not unidirectional. The data also highlights that Jordanian nationals themselves have sought asylum abroad, facing varied recognition rates that ranged from 54 per cent to just 2 per cent across the top ten asylum countries. This illustrates the complex, multi-directional nature of displacement and underscores that the need for robust, fair, and efficient asylum procedures is a global, shared responsibility.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Jordan from 2019 to 2024, where the annual number of cases shows significant fluctuation, with a maximum of 2,475 cases recorded., This bar chart displays the volume of asylum applications and decisions in Jordan over a six-year period, from 2019 to 2024. The data is categorized by the stage in the asylum process.

Statistically, the analysis covers 18 data points across the years. The total number of cases per category per year ranges from a low of 5 to a high of 2,475, with an average of 960 cases. The median value is 886, indicating that half the observations fall below this number. The interquartile range, from 783 (25th percentile) to 1,288 (75th percentile), shows a moderate spread for the central 50% of the data, but the high maximum value suggests some periods or categories had exceptionally high volumes.

An important contextual note is that these figures represent the number of applications, and a single individual may have submitted more than one. This data is critical for UNHCR to monitor operational capacity, identify trends in forced displacement, and plan resource allocation for refugee status determination (RSD) in Jordan.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination decisions in Jordan, where out of 84,528 decisions in 2024, the primary outcomes were refugee status granted, case closed, or application rejected., This parallel sets plot provides a detailed visualization of the 84,528 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded by UNHCR in Jordan for the year 2024. The chart illustrates the flow of individuals through the determination process, showing the distribution of final outcomes.

The width of the bands flowing across the chart is proportional to the number of individuals in each category. The plot demonstrates the breakdown of decisions into three main final statuses: ‘Refugee Status Granted’, ‘Rejected’, and ‘Case Closed’ (which includes administrative closures and withdrawn applications).

Key statistical insights from the chart include: - Total Decisions Analyzed: 84,528 - The largest flow of individuals culminates in ‘Refugee Status Granted’, indicating this is the most common outcome. - A significant number of cases are categorized as ‘Case Closed’, representing the second-largest group. - The ‘Rejected’ category constitutes a smaller but still substantial portion of the total decisions.

This visualization is crucial for understanding the operational outcomes of the asylum system in Jordan, highlighting the protection environment and identifying trends in decision-making for different populations.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Jordan from 2020 to 2024, where the gap between applications and decisions widens over time, indicating a growing processing backlog., This chart visualizes the cumulative flow of asylum applications against first instance decisions in Jordan between 2020 and 2024. The x-axis represents the year, and the y-axis shows the cumulative count of cases. The chart features two area plots: a larger one for ‘Applications’ and a smaller one nested within it for ‘Decisions’. The space between the top edge of the ‘Decisions’ area and the top edge of the ‘Applications’ area represents the gap, or the total number of pending cases. The data shows that while both cumulative applications and decisions have increased over the period, the number of applications has consistently outpaced decisions. This has resulted in a progressively wider gap year-on-year, signifying a growing backlog and, consequently, an increase in the average processing time for asylum seekers awaiting a first instance decision.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: A bar chart of the Refugee Recognition Rate by Country of Origin in Jordan for 2024, where the rate for the top 10 countries of origin ranges from 7.5% to 77.7%., This bar chart presents the Refugee Recognition Rate in Jordan for 2024, focusing on the top 10 countries of origin ranked by the total number of asylum decisions made. The vertical axis represents the recognition rate as a percentage, while the horizontal axis would list the individual countries of origin.

Statistical Analysis: The dataset includes 10 countries. The key metric, ‘RefugeeRecognitionRate’, shows significant variability across these nationalities. The rates range from a low of 7.5% to a high of 77.7%. The average (mean) recognition rate across these groups is 46.4%, with a median of 53.0%, indicating that half of these nationalities have a recognition rate above 53%.

The chart is ordered based on the ‘TotalDecided’ cases, which range from 134 to 48,560 for these top 10 countries. This ordering highlights the outcomes for the most frequently processed nationalities, not necessarily those with the highest or lowest recognition rates.

Context for UNHCR: This visualization is critical for understanding protection trends in Jordan. The wide disparity in recognition rates between different nationalities may reflect varying levels of risk and conflict in their respective countries of origin, as well as specific legal or policy considerations within the Jordanian asylum system. For UNHCR, this data helps to identify populations with high protection needs, inform advocacy efforts, and allocate resources for legal assistance and support services more effectively. The ‘TotalRecognitionRate’, which includes complementary protection, is statistically very similar to the ‘RefugeeRecognitionRate’ in this dataset, suggesting that grants of complementary protection are infrequent among these populations.

AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rates for nationals from Jordan in 2024 by the top 10 countries of asylum, where rates vary significantly from a high of 54% to a low of 2%., This bar chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Jordan across the top 10 countries of asylum, which are ordered by the total number of decisions made. The analysis is based on data from 10 countries. The key variable, Refugee Recognition Rate, shows substantial variation. The average recognition rate across these countries is 15.1%, with a median of 10.4%. The rates span a wide range, from a minimum of 2.2% to a maximum of 53.8%. The total number of decisions processed in these countries, which determines their order in the chart, ranges from 669 to 5,940. When complementary protection is included, the total recognition rate has a slightly higher average of 17.3%. The data highlights a significant disparity in asylum outcomes for Jordanian nationals, depending on the country in which they seek asylum.

Solutions

Solutions for the Forcibly Displaced

The path to durable solutions remains a cornerstone of the international protection regime, yet access to such pathways has shown significant volatility in recent years, shaped by global crises and shifting political will. The data reveals a stark contrast over the reporting period. In Jordan, a major host country, a peak of over 29,400 solutions was achieved in 2019. This figure plummeted to just under 3,900 in 2020, a dramatic reduction that reflects the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought global resettlement and movement to a near standstill. The subsequent years, from 2021 to 2023, saw only a modest recovery, with solutions remaining below 7,000 annually.

However, a significant shift is anticipated. Projections for 2024 and 2025 signal a renewed and ambitious global commitment, with planned solutions for refugees in Jordan set to rise exponentially to over 65,000 and 101,000 respectively. This represents a critical opportunity to address protracted displacement for thousands of refugees who have been living in exile for over a decade.

Behind these stark numbers lies a more complex reality. When comparing the availability of solutions with the number of new refugee status recognitions in Jordan, a vast and widening gap emerges. While fewer than 1,300 individuals were granted refugee status annually during the reporting period, the number of available solutions was consistently several times higher. This disparity underscores a crucial aspect of the refugee response in the region: the focus is largely on finding solutions for a large, established refugee population, rather than on new arrivals. The projected surge in solutions from 2024 onwards, therefore, does not correlate with an increase in new recognitions but rather signifies a monumental effort to provide pathways to permanence for those in long-term exile. Realizing these ambitious targets will depend entirely on the sustained political and financial commitment of the international community.

AI Insight: Column chart of the number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Jordan from 2019 to 2025, where solutions peaked in 2019, dropped significantly from 2020 to 2023, and show a large projected increase for 2024 and 2025., This column chart displays the annual trends in durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Jordan. The x-axis represents the years from 2019 to 2025, and the y-axis indicates the number of individuals who found a solution. The data for 2024 and 2025 represent projections or targets.

Detailed statistical analysis shows a fluctuating pattern: - In 2019, the number of solutions was at a high, with a maximum value of 29,409. - A sharp decline occurred in 2020, with the maximum dropping to 3,888, likely reflecting the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resettlement and movement. - The period from 2021 to 2023 saw relatively low and stable numbers, with maximum values of 6,927, 4,429, and 4,453, respectively. - There is a significant projected increase in solutions for 2024 and 2025, with planned maximums of 65,382 and 101,807, respectively. This indicates ambitious targets for resettlement, repatriation, or local integration in the coming years.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions versus available solutions in Jordan from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions consistently and vastly outnumbers the number of recognitions, with the gap widening dramatically from 2024 onwards., This time-series line chart compares the annual number of refugee recognitions against the number of available durable solutions in Jordan, with data spanning from 2019 to 2025. The chart’s purpose is to highlight the relationship and scale difference between these two key metrics.

Data Series Analysis: - Refugee Recognitions (blue line): This series represents the number of individuals granted refugee status each year. The figures are relatively low and stable, fluctuating between a low of 610 (projected for 2025) and a peak of 1,239 in 2022. - Available Solutions (teal line): This series represents the availability of durable solutions, such as resettlement or voluntary repatriation. These numbers are orders of magnitude larger than recognitions. The series starts at 29,409 in 2019, sees a dip to 3,888 in 2020, and then experiences a massive surge to 65,382 in 2024 and a projected 101,807 in 2025.

Key Insight and Statistical Breakdown: The most prominent feature of the visualization is the immense and growing gap between available solutions and refugee recognitions. While solutions have always outnumbered recognitions in this period, the disparity becomes exceptionally large from 2024. In 2022, there were 4,457 solutions for 1,239 recognitions. By 2024, this gap explodes to 65,382 solutions for only 867 recognitions. This indicates a significant surplus of available solutions compared to the number of individuals being formally recognized as refugees in Jordan during the observed period.

Detailed Data Points: - 2019: 773 Recognitions, 29,409 Solutions - 2020: 900 Recognitions, 3,888 Solutions - 2021: 812 Recognitions, 6,944 Solutions - 2022: 1,239 Recognitions, 4,457 Solutions - 2023: 869 Recognitions, 4,478 Solutions - 2024: 867 Recognitions, 65,382 Solutions - 2025: 610 Recognitions, 101,807 Solutions